Tennessee/Louisville 1st Half Film Review
What went wrong for Louisville?
Hello and thank you for reading. I hope to make this space many things and for the moment some of those things are unrealized. Today is a good illustration of what you can expect with a heavy focus on college basketball and some betting angles to boot. We’ll break down Louisville’s first half calamity against Tennessee in my first post. Let’s get to it.
Louisville vs Tennessee 1H breakdown
There were two critical segments for Louisville in the 1st Half that pretty much decided the game. Sure, Louisville cut it to nine in the second half before Zakai Zeigler hit a miracle three (and Louisville shown some quit after) but for the most part this thing was done early.
Those segments broke down as follows:
Being Intimidated? Nervous? Unprepared? (1H 20:00 to 13:35)
Tennessee responding to a soft punch (1H 6:06 to 3:00)
I want to talk about them both.
The Start (1H 20:00 to 13:35)
In the pregame radio show, I thought Paul Rogers asked a very astute question of Kelsey that I hadn’t heard all week.
Something like if he felt he had to worry about his players being “too amped up.” I thought that was a very good question for two reasons.
One, because just a few days ago, the players were, in fact too amped up in the opener against Morehead State. Look at this shot.
Long and wide. That’s what most of the shots looked like early in the game against Morehead as the Cards started 2 of 9 from deep before they got it going.
One of many basketball laws? Long shots are a sure sign of being too amped, and short ones are a sure sign of nerves. It’s been the former for Louisville, which I suppose is slightly better than the alternative. I also felt there was something similar going on against the Vols. The shots in this segment to start the game went as follows:
18:00, guarded three
16:54, open three, long
15:48, open three, long
15:39, open three, long
15:00, blocked layup, hesitant
14:35, open three, made
13:35, open three, made
By this point it was 12-5, it certainly in way caused you to lose the game but it repeated a trend of what we saw in the previous game before. It's worth noting that we all saw a reemergence of Louisville having tons of success in the corners; it’s the set they went to when they needed a basket badly and both were open.
Here’s Louisville’s shot chart through two games:
The second reason I thought this was a good question for Kelsey is that he’s not had to deal with many *big* games against elite opponents, and when he has, there have been some interesting trends. One jumped out to me:
Kelsey has played three Q1 opponents the past three seasons, including Tennessee, on Saturday; his teams are a combined 0-13 in the first five minutes of those games from three. It’s a weird oddity, mainly because most shots are open.
The critical thing to remember (besides the obvious of dealing with minimal data sets) is it’s tough to make the argument that there is something functionally wrong with the offense. The looks are open, and the offense mostly flows like it should. I noted throughout the game that ShotQuality was grading Louisville to be winning or the game much closer than indicated. Here are a two grabs from the first half that show that (all via ShotQuality):
I’m sure things were similar during this period.
The shots were good looks. They weren’t falling.
I don’t know the answers to avoiding being “too hyped” for the moment other than repetition, but it’s something to be aware of. I thought Kelsey’s eventual answer to this question was a bit odd, stating that he makes it a point to give guys “extra confidence” during film prep, but admittedly, I could be reading into that a bit much.
What does this mean going forward?
We’re theorizing here, but I do wonder if things will look better early in the season in the Bahamas in front of smaller crowds where the pressure is minimized or even on the road. We’ll see. Perhaps it ends up being a footnote and never needs to be addressed again.
Tennessee extending the lead (6:06 to 3:00)
To be clear, Tennessee was extending it’s lead for mostly the duration of the first half sans the last three minutes when the Cards made a run; this was just a particular portion I wanted to focus on. Here Louisville was outscored 9-0 with a few turnovers. Without this burst, the 8-0 run it made right before the end of the half becomes significantly more valuable as you’re facing a single-digit deficit instead of a 14-point one.
Let’s continue the theme and focus on the shots first. We’re going to break down a two offense possessions that capture what happened throughout the game.
Straightforward stuff. Koron Johnson gets a simple clear-out and finds a big switch for him. He makes the correct read and blows by him to get to the rim. The help side defense arrives to make the shot attempt more complex, but this is probably an attempt that Johnson himself would even say he should finish. Louisville could have some success in these spots because the Vols rim protection is not as good as it has been in years past. I was wrong and right somehow, but this is a good possession. I mentioned on the Louisville Sports Live that this could be a Koron Johnson game. He certainly had some chances.
OK. If I had one lasting concern from this game, it’s illustrated by this possession. Part of the reason for that is this was a concern before the season. Where are the guards that can beat someone off the dribble? Well, here, they aren’t even on the court (if there is someone who can consistently do it)
Let’s note a few things about this lineup.
Chucky Hepburn has been on the floor the majority of the time to table set but has never really been a blown-by-you type of player.
Reyne Smith is a lethal shooter, but the same thing holds.
Aboubacar Traore is likely my personal favorite of all team players, but he really isn’t going to be an offensive threat until he plays above the rim more and develops a three-point shot.
From the jump, against a very intense on-ball pressure defense, you are at a disadvantage because of this.
Louisville’s first read is the curl option from the left elbow to Reyne Smith. It’s a great set because, based on his career numbers, this is a spot from which Smith loves to shoot. However, it’s defended better because Tennessee is blessed with one of the best perimeter defenders in the sport in ZZ (held opponents .60 on spot-up shots as the primary defender a season ago per Synergy) who blows it up faking a ball screen ice and causing some hesitation on the pass.
The second read is dictated by the switch that Pryor gets to the more undersized guard. This is a good spot for him as it’s similar to when Koron Johnson was switched on by a big in the earlier video. The problem is that he gets the ball too late and has little time to use his physical advantage. Again, there is some hesitancy to make the pass; without it, the possession may have a different result. These things can be cleaned; however, this does highlight some issues that may persist throughout the season. Louisville will have multiple lineups that put bigs on the floor who can space things & create mismatches, but with that, you’ll lose some ability to dribble past opponents and create penetration. That happened far too often on Saturday. I’m interested in seeing what the counter is to that.
Now for everything else. Like this.
I don’t really know how Smith finds himself defending the guy that UT brought in to replace Dalton Knecht’s scoring but it happens here. To be honest, It doesn’t even bother me a ton. Smith is one of the best shooters in college basketball and him on the floor is generally going to outweigh any negitive defensively. I only point it because it’s likely a mental mistake that bled over two plays.
Like here
Can’t happen. It prompted me to tweet this.
https://x.com/TheBestWager/status/185530412465433445
Too harsh? Prehaps but it’s a perfect capture of that segement of basketball.
I’ll leave you with the final box score from ShotQuality.com
Coming Tomorrow:
Gambling angles to consider for the Champions Classic.